Wins for Manchester United and Newcastle United on have further narrowed Liverpool’s path to a Champions League place, as a ’62 per cent’ difference demonstrates.
When Liverpool thrashed Manchester United 7-0 on March 5, it was fifth in the table, three points off the top four with a game in hand.
Since then, however, it has picked up just one point from a possible nine, losing to Bournemouth and Manchester City before a goalless draw at Chelsea.
As such, Jürgen Klopp’s side has fallen down to eighth place, 10 points off the Champions League qualification spots.
On Wednesday night, Newcastle thrashed West Ham 5-1, and Manchester United beat Brentford 1-0, to extend their lead over the Reds.
FiveThirtyEight’s model now gives Liverpool just an 11 per cent chance of making it into Europe’s premier club competition.
Newcastle, by contrast has improved its chances to 77 per cent, with Manchester United not far behind on 73 per cent.
And looking back across the past five seasons, the extent of Klopp’s task becomes even clearer.
Between 2017/18 and 2021/22, the fourth-place team has, on average, amassed 70 points.
To reach that average, Liverpool, currently on 43 points, would need to win nine of its remaining 10 games.
Even to get to 66, the lowest qualifying tally across that period, it requires seven wins and two draws across the run-in.
Liverpool.com says: At their current points-per-game rates, Newcastle and Manchester United are on track for 72 points. That means even a slight improvement in form for both sides could make top-four mathematically impossible for Liverpool.
And even if they suffer a drop-off, Klopp’s side will need a huge, unforeseen improvement to have any chance of catching them.
We may soon reach a point where they are forced to accept defeat in the race, and instead just focus on salvaging some respectability from the season. There’s still a chance to inspire some optimism for 2023/24 by finishing strong.
And even if they suffer a drop-off, Klopp’s side will need a huge, unforeseen improvement to have any chance of catching them.
We may soon reach a point where they are forced to accept defeat in the race, and instead just focus on salvaging some respectability from the season. There’s still a chance to inspire some optimism for 2023/24 by finishing strong.
